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Market Commentary

Updated on Sep 5 2010 5:31PM EST
OpenClose Mortgage Software

This week brings us the release of only two pieces of economic data, but neither of them are considered to be highly important. In addition to the economic releases, we also have two Treasury auctions that may play a role in this week’s mortgage pricing. The financial and mortgage markets will closed Monday in observance of the Labor Day holiday, meaning we will not see new mortgage rates until Tuesday morning.

The first release of the week comes Wednesday afternoon. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday. This report details current economic conditions in the U.S. by Federal Reserve regions. It is believed to be a key source of data when the Fed meets for their FOMC meetings and is usually released approximately two weeks prior to each meeting. If it reveals any significant surprises, we may see movement in the markets and mortgage pricing as analysts adjust their theories on the Fed’s next move. Most likely though, it will be a non-event and will not lead to a noticeable change in mortgage rates.

Also Wednesday is a 10-year Treasury Note auction, which will be followed by a 30-year Bond auction Thursday. It is fairly common to see some weakness in bonds before these sales as investors prepare for them. If the sales are met with a decent demand from investors, indicating interest in longer-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds still exists, the earlier losses are usually recovered after the results are announced. The results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If demand was strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve during afternoon trading Wednesday and Thursday.

July’s Goods and Services Trade Balance data will be posted early Thursday morning, giving us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is expected to show a deficit of approximately $47.2 billion, which would be a decline from June’s $49.9 billion. However, I would consider this the least important of this week’s events, meaning it will likely have little impact on bond trading or mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

Overall, this week looks like it will be much less active for mortgage rates than last week was. With the financial markets closed tomorrow, we only have four days of trading. There is no particular data that is important enough to label its day of release as the most important of the week. This may allow the stock markets to heavily influence bond trading and therefore, impact mortgage rates this week. As long as the stock markets do not stage a sizable rally or sell-off this week, the likelihood of seeing significant changes to mortgage rates is fairly minimal.